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A Guide to Picking a 2026 NCAA Tournament Champion
Publish Date: March 15, 2026
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While upsets happen all the time in the NCAA Tournament, there are usually only a handful of teams that can win the tournament. Here is a guide to picking a 2026 NCAA Tournament Champion!
These teams are efficient on both ends of the floor and are usually battle-tested as well. The last team to win it all and not be top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (according to kenpom.com ) was UConn in 2014. That UConn team is the only team since 2002 not to meet those parameters and still win the championship.
Other teams could follow 2014 UConn’s steps and win it all, but they would be a statistical outlier.
Note: Teams can start outside of these parameters, but play so efficiently in the tournament that they finish there.
Teams Currently Fitting the Criteria (Pick With Less Risk)
A guide to picking a 2025 NCAA Tournament Champion
Duke Blue Devils- Duke is the top-rated team in KenPom for the season. They rank fourth in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are the number one overall seed, but injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba have given some doubts. Cameron Boozer was able to carry the team to an ACC Tournament Championship without them. ‘
The Wildcats are the second-highest team on KenPom, coming in at fifth on offense and third on defense. Arizona doesn’t shoot many three-pointers, but are able to bully teams inside. The Wildcats have plenty of experience with a mix of talented freshmen who could help them cut down the nets.