How Accurate are College Football Preseason Polls?

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How Accurate are College Football Preseason Polls?

Publish Date: July 30, 2019

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Every year preseason polls come out for college football to help to get fans hyped up for the season. While these polls don’t mean much, as every Power 5 conference team controls their own destiny, the polls do generate great discussion. Should fans believe the polls though? This article will look back at how accurate the preseason polls have been since the inception of the College Football Playoff.

Ezekiel Elliot (Photo by nytimes.com)

The 2014-2015 season was the first for the College Football Playoff. While it generated excitement, all four teams that made it into the CFP were ranked in the top five in the preseason AP Poll. The teams were also ranked in the top six in the preseason Coaches Poll.

Florida State was ranked first and Alabama was ranked second in both polls. Oregon was ranked third in the AP Poll and fourth in the Coaches Poll. Ohio State was ranked fifth in the AP Poll and sixth in the Coaches Poll. The teams were seeded in the following manner by the end of the season by the CFP Committee: 1. Alabama, 2. Oregon, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State.

Ohio State won the first-ever College Football Playoff as the last team in the field. Preseason polls that year were proven to be pretty accurate, with the champion being ranked fifth and sixth respectively.

In the 2015-2016 season, the preseason polls probably did their worst job in the CFP era of predicting how things would turn out. Every team was ranked in both top 25s, as has always been the case for CFP teams, but two were ranked outside of the top 10 in both.

Alabama, Michigan State, Clemson and Oklahoma were the teams that made the CFP that season. Alabama was ranked third, Clemson was ranked 12th and Oklahoma was ranked 19th in both polls. Michigan State was fifth in the AP Poll and sixth in the Coaches Poll. For the CFP, the teams were ranked: 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Michigan State, 4. Oklahoma.

The Crimson Tide won the National Championship Game to kick off the Alabama vs. Clemson saga. There were some teams ranked outside of the top 10 to make the CFP, but the champion was ranked third before the season.